TL;DR – Today we run through the 2019 Oscars Nominees to predict who we think will win

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Today is Oscars day and in a couple of hours, we will know all the winners in what has been one of the more fraught Oscar campaigns that I have personally seen. But as we prepare for the night of glitz, glamour, and maybe not having an awkward opening monologue that still has to live in Hugh Jackman’s shadow, I thought I would take a moment to look at the nominees to give our views as to who we think will win.

 Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Mahershala Ali (Green Book), Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman), Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born), Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) & Sam Rockwell (Vice)

The supporting role nominations are one of those awards that tend to happen early in the program and can give you a sense of where the show will go. When it comes down to it, this will probably show whether people should start drinking early in the program. For me, I found Adam Driver’s performance to be really captivating, but if The Green Book is going to win anything, I hope it is Mahershala Ali picking up his next award.

Actress in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Amy Adams (Vice), Marina de Tavira (Roma), Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk), Emma Stone (The Favourite) & Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)

Another bellwether award and also one of the most competitive of the night. Frankly, I would be happy if any of these amazingly talking women walked away with the Oscar. I think this will be one of those awards to see just how willing The Academy voters are to get on board with a Netflix show, however, I have a feeling that this might be one for The Favourite. Though I would be happy if Amy Adams got the award to make up for not even being nominated for Arrival, something I am still annoyed about. 

Costume Design

Nominees: Mary Zophres (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs), Ruth Carter (Black Panther), Sandy Powell (The Favourite & Mary Poppins Returns) & Alexandra Byrne (Mary Queen of Scots) 

One of the big stories this year is the nomination of Black Panther in multiple categories outside of the usual Visual Effects and Sound Editing nominations comic book films get. This is one of those awards where we will see if voters are willing to actually jump on board with comic films, and you have to admit Ruth Carter would completely deserve it. However, in the past, The Academy has tended to go for more period dramas, and if that trend holds up today then Sandy Powell should have a lock for The Favourite.   

Film Editing

Nominees: Barry Alexander Brown (BlacKkKlansman), John Ottman (Bohemian Rhapsody), Yorgos Mavropsaridis (The Favourite), Patrick J. Don Vito (Green Book) & Hank Corwin (Vice)  

Editing is one of those skills that you either want to be so smooth that the audience has no idea that you exist, or so outlandish that you can’t help see it stamped across the film. Over the years the voters have swayed from one to the next, however this year I think they will go big. So while I don’t think it wins the big award tonight, I do think this is where Yorgos Mavropsaridis will walk away with the gold for The Favourite. 

Makeup and Hairstyling

Nominees: Göran Lundström and Pamela Goldammer (Border), Jenny Shircore, Marc Pilcher and Jessica Brooks (Mary Queen of Scots) & Greg Cannom, Kate Biscoe and Patricia Dehaney (Vice)

I have unfortunately not seen the three films nominated here so I can’t tell you which one will win. However, can someone tell me in the comments below why they only have three nominations, the best I can get is some vague ‘it’s a guild thing’. Also, I bring this category up because I am still salty that people voted for Suicide Squad over Star Trek Beyond.

Music (Original Score)

Nominees: Ludwig Goransson (Black Panther),  Terence Blanchard (BlacKkKlansman),  Nicholas Britell (If Beale Street Could Talk), Alexandre Desplat (Isle of Dogs) & Marc Shaiman (Mary Poppins Returns)

This is another stacked category, though I am sad one of our favourite scores of the year from First Man didn’t make the cut. Each of these scores is so different but so good each in their own ways. So I have no idea where the voters will fall, but if I had pick one, which is the whole point of this article I would have to go for Ludwig Goransson’s phenomenal score for Black Panther if for the Casino Brawl alone.

Music (Original Song)

Nominees: All The Stars (from Black Panther; Music by Kendrick Lamar, Mark “Sounwave” Spears and Anthony “Top Dawg” Tiffith; Lyric by Kendrick Lamar, SZA and Anthony “Top Dawg” Tiffith), I’ll Fight (from RBG; Music and Lyric by Diane Warren), The Place Where Lost Things Go (from Mary Poppins Returns; Music by Marc Shaiman; Lyric by Scott Wittman and Marc Shaiman), Shallow (from A Star Is Born; Music and Lyric by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando and Andrew Wyatt) & When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings (from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs; Music and Lyric by Gillian Welch and David Rawlings)

For a long time in the build-up to this year’s Oscars A Star Is Born was one of the clear favourites to sweep the awards, then it kind of floundered but for the life of me, I could not tell you why. So while I don’t think we will see it pick up any of the major awards, you would think it was a safe bet that it is still going to walk away with a golden stature here.

Production Design

Nominees: Hannah Beachler & Jay Hart (Black Panther), Fiona Crombie & Alice Felton (The Favourite), Nathan Crowley & Kathy Lucas (First Man), John Myhre & Gordon Sim (Mary Poppins Returns) and Eugenio Caballero & Bárbara Enríquez (Roma)

Once again in this award, we see the tension of the future in Black Panther and the past with The Favourite. However, this is also one of those awards where it will be easy for there to be an outside win because there are a lot of period films going for the nomination that may split the votes. One of the surprise multiple nominations this year was Mary Poppins Returns, and I think you may see them walk away with the gold here. 

Short Film (Animated)

Nominees: Animal Behaviour (Alison Snowden and David Fine), Bao (Domee Shi and Becky Neiman-Cobb), Late Afternoon (Louise Bagnall and Nuria González Blanco), One Small Step (Andrew Chesworth and Bobby Pontillas) & Weekends (Trevor Jimenez)

For me, even though there are a lot of really talented entries here, there is only one winner and that is Bao. Bao did in only a handful of minutes something even full-length features fail to do, and make me care for someone I will never know.

Sound Editing

Nominees: Benjamin A. Burtt and Steve Boeddeker (Black Panther), John Warhurst and Nina Hartstone (Bohemian Rhapsody), Ai-Ling Lee and Mildred Iatrou Morgan (First Man), Ethan Van der Ryn and Erik Aadahl (A Quiet Place) & Sergio Díaz and Skip Lievsay (Roma)

In this category, we have a film that is all about silence, where every sound you make can be a threat. However, it is not our recommendation simply because First Man is here. First Man, is one of those films that I am surprised with how little a reception it got this year at the Oscars. However when I think back to the last year at every rumble of an engine, every creak, every crack, and the thin line between success and failure, well there can be only one.

 Sound Mixing

Nominees: Steve Boeddeker, Brandon Proctor and Peter Devlin (Black Panther), Paul Massey, Tim Cavagin and John Casali (Bohemian Rhapsody), Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, Ai-Ling Lee and Mary H. Ellis (First Man), Skip Lievsay, Craig Henighan and José Antonio García (Roma) & Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic, Jason Ruder and Steve Morrow (A Star Is Born)

There are so many great films on this list, but there also is one deeply problematic one. How the hell do you approach Bohemian Rhapsody where you have a film with so many talented people worked so hard on it, but you cannot help but have the whole thing destroyed by a director that was fired during production but not because of his history of alleged abuse. This might be a lock for them for the awards but once again our choice would have to be First Man.

Visual Effects

Nominees: Dan DeLeeuw, Kelly Port, Russell Earl and Dan Sudick (Avengers: Infinity War), Christopher Lawrence, Michael Eames, Theo Jones and Chris Corbould (Christopher Robin), Paul Lambert, Ian Hunter, Tristan Myles and J.D. Schwalm (First Man), Roger Guyett, Grady Cofer, Matthew E. Butler and David Shirk (Ready Player One) & Rob Bredow, Patrick Tubach, Neal Scanlan and Dominic Tuohy (Solo: A Star Wars Story)  

We have a category where Avengers and Star Wars are duking it out for the win, but they are not going to be my picks here. Instead, I am going to go for an outside shot and say Ready Player One. Now, don’t get me wrong, RPO has its issues, but Visual Effects is not one of them, and never underestimate the power of Spielberg.  

Writing (Original Screenplay)

Nominees: Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara (The Favourite), Paul Schrader (First Reformed), Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly (Green Book), Alfonso Cuarón (Roma) & Adam McKay (Vice)

This is another very tight race and it could go either way but I do think Alfonso Cuarón will get this one over The Favourite, though I would be happy with either. Though I hope at least that this is one Green Book does not win, because I don’t think anyone wants to see that awkward tension on camera.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

Nominees: Joel Coen & Ethan Coen (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs), Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman), Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty (Can You Ever Forgive Me?), Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk) & Eric Roth and Bradley Cooper & Will Fetters (A Star Is Born)

If Beale Street Could Talk is a film I have not to be able to see yet but I have heard nothing but good things, so I would be more than happy to see it win here. However, if I have to make a pick I would say this is one where I think we will very comfortably see BlacKkKlansman take home the award, and for good measure too.

Cinematography

Nominees: Łukasz Żal (Cold War), Robbie Ryan (The Favourite), Caleb Deschanel (Never Look Away), Alfonso Cuarón (Roma) & Matthew Libatique (A Star Is Born)

Once again this is a category full of some simply amazing talent, with some stunningly realised films. For me personally, I think I have to go with Alfonso Cuarón purely because when I think back to the cinematography of last year, nothing else capture my soul like Roma did.   

 Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees: Christian Bale (Vice), Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born), Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate), Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) & Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)

If there is one category tonight where I have very little interests about who wins or not it has to be this one with few good options. So you know what, go Willem Dafoe, I have not seen your film, but you always bring your A-Game, and I would be happy to see that tonight

Actress in a Leading Role

Nominees: Yalitza Aparicio (Roma), Glenn Close (The Wife), Olivia Colman (The Favourite), Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born) & Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

For me, I would be happy if either Yalitza Aparicio or Olivia Colman won because Yalitza has more style than I will ever have in my life, and trust me you would want to see Olivia accepting the award. If I was forced to pick one I would go with Olivia, but then never, ever, count Glenn Close out when it comes to awards time.

Directing

Nominees: Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman), Paweł Pawlikowski (Cold War), Yorgos Lanthimos, (The Favourite), Alfonso Cuarón (Roma) & Adam McKay (Vice)

When you think through how The Academy usually votes, you would think that Alfonso Cuarón or maybe  Yorgos Lanthimos would have this one in the bag. However, this is the first time Spike Lee has ever been nominated, which is a travesty when you think about it. So I don’t think it will be business as usual and I think Spike will pick up his much deserved Oscar for BlacKkKlansman, and a long overdue one at that.   

Foreign Language Film

Nominees: Capernaum (Lebanon), Cold War (Poland), Never Look Away (Germany), Roma (Mexico) & Shoplifters (Japan)

This is another really stacked category this year, with some really powerful films. However, this might be one of the easiest bets of the night because bar a major upset you would think Roma has this one locked down. While Roma might struggle to get the major award at the end of the night, most people assume (we included) that they will 100% get the Foreign Language nod. 

Animated Feature Film

Nominees: Incredibles 2 (Brad Bird, John Walker and Nicole Paradis Grindle), Isle of Dogs (Wes Anderson, Scott Rudin, Steven Rales and Jeremy Dawson), Mirai (Mamoru Hosoda and Yuichiro Saito), Ralph Breaks the Internet (Rich Moore, Phil Johnston and Clark Spencer) & Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman, Phil Lord and Christopher Miller)

This might be the most competitive category of the night, with every single entry here doing something amazing with animation, and every single entry here more than worth taking away the Oscar. For me personally, I have to through my support behind Into the Spider-Verse, as it was our Top Film of 2018, however, once again every single film here would be deserving of the gold.

Best Picture

Nominees: Black Panther (Kevin Feige), BlacKkKlansman (Sean McKittrick, Jason Blum, Raymond Mansfield, Jordan Peele and Spike Lee), Bohemian Rhapsody (Graham King), The Favourite (Ceci Dempsey, Ed Guiney, Lee Magiday and Yorgos Lanthimos), Green Book (Jim Burke, Charles B. Wessler, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly and Nick Vallelonga), Roma (Gabriela Rodríguez and Alfonso Cuarón), A Star Is Born (Bill Gerber, Bradley Cooper and Lynette Howell Taylor) & Vice (Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Adam McKay and Kevin Messick)

With our final category of the night, we also have the oddest Best Picture line up that I have seen in quite a while, and a really disconnected list to boot. Who is going to win? Well, I have to tell you it is hard to pick. A Star Was Born was the early runner but it feels like it didn’t have the legs, Green Book or Bohemian Rhapsody seem like the obvious choice as long as you have not watched the new in the last month, The Favourite and BlacKkKlansman might be a bit too weird for voters, Roma is a lock for Foreign Film mostly because people feel it won’t get the nod here and are people really ready to give Black Panther the award? For me look I’d just give it to Roma, and if BlacKkKlansman, The Favourite, or even Black Panther won, I’d be more than happy.

And there we go, my picks for Oscar gold, what are your picks? Let us know in the comments below.  

By Brian MacNamara: You can follow Brian on Twitter Here, when he’s not chatting about Movies and TV, he’ll be talking about International Relations, or the Solar System.

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